The market may be too comfortable entering a historically scary month
Investors are resting in their laurels after the latest run to record highs. Wolfe Research pointed out that the five-day moving average on S & P 500 put-to-call ratio — which looks at the number of put options bought relative to call options — fell to just above 0.6, flashing a sell signal. “It is simply buying intense fear and selling extreme complacency and bullishness. The last 4 signals were quite timely in calling for a short-term peak, with drawdowns of 9%, 10%, 13% and 21% soon to follow,” the firm wrote. This signal comes as the S & P 500 trades at all-time highs, boosted by a shift in Federal Reserve policy. The Fed earlier this month cut interest rates by a half percentage point, the first easing of policy in more than four years. Wall Street sees further reductions ahead, too. Another sign of complacency? The VIX is trading at its lowest levels of September, hovering near 15. The Cboe Volatilty Index spiked north of 23 earlier this month, as worries over the U.S. economy weighed on sentiment. Janney Montgomery Scott technical strategist Dan Wantrobski also pointed out that stocks are overbought short term. “The correction we had been looking for earlier in September experienced cycle inversion on 9/11, and since then, we have effectively experienced a ‘crash upward’ in risk assets,” Wantrobski wrote. “This will delay a bigger correction for the time being, but the markets in our opinion remain very vulnerable to exogenous shocks in this environment.” Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning , Morgan Stanley upgraded Wynn Resorts to overweight from equal weight. “We believe WYNN’s continued investment, proximity to recently added attractions, and high-end brand will all support more resilient fundamentals vs. the market,” the bank wrote in a note to clients.
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